Value and innovation of direct-acting antivirals: long-term health outcomes of the strategic plan for the management of hepatitis C in Spain

Abstract

To assess the long-term healthcare costs and health outcomes in association with the access to new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), during the first year of the National Strategic Plan for Chronic Hepatitis C (SPCHC) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in Spain. A decision tree and a lifetime Markov model were developed to simulate the natural history, morbidity, and mortality of a cohort of 51,900 patients with CHC before (pre-DAA strategy) and after (post-DAA strategy) access to DAAs, following SPCHC approval. The percentage of patients treated, transition probabilities, disease management costs, health state utility values, sustained virologic response rates and treatment costs were obtained from the literature and published data from Spain. The results were expressed in terms of costs (€, 2016), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and prevention of clinical events, with an annual discount rate of 3%. The post-DAA strategy would prevent 8,667 cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 5,471 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 1,137 liver transplants and 9,608 liver-related deaths. The cohort of 51,900 patients would require investments of 1,606 and 1,230 million euros with the post-DAA and pre-DAA strategies, respectively. This would produce 819,674 and 665,703 QALYs. The use of new DAA-based treatments in CHC patients during the first year after the implementation of the SPCHC significantly reduced long-term morbidity and mortality and increased quality of life; demonstrating that this plan is an efficient use of public health resources.